F1 Title Mathematically Destined For Webber


With three races to go in the 2010 FIA Formula 1 World Championship and five contenders still in the frame for the title, a doctor of physics has mathematically proven that Mark Webber will emerge triumphant.

Commissioned by the newly-revamped F1 Racing magazine, Dr Mark Peace has created this incredible formula: Z = 11√p/r + 10w + 5s +5f/20a – which predicts that the Australian will pip Briton, Lewis Hamilton, to the crown.

The lecturer and doctor of physics at Reading University analysed patterns from the last 40 years of Grand Prix racing, taking into account race wins, pole positions, podium finishes, average finishing positions and race retirements for the top three drivers from every season.

The formula was then applied to this year's F1 championship contenders and Webber, who leads by 14 points, came out on top.

The key to the formula is:

p = number of poles in the season
r = number of retirements in the season
w = number of wins in the season
s = number of second and third places in the season
f = number of point-scoring positions achieved lower than first, second or third
a = average race finish in the season

F1 Racing - On Sale October 21 2010

F1 Racing's outspoken columnist and 1997 F1 World Champion, Jacques Villeneuve, has added his support to Webber's title charge in the latest issue of the magazine, out Oct 21.

“What's happened throughout your career and your time in F1 is what forms your psychological make-up,” he says. “The guys who have had it tough do better when it's crunch time, like Mark and [Ferrari's] Fernando Alonso. It has a huge effect when you compare these guys to some of the pampered young guys.

“Just look at the differing seasons Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel have had. Vettel has shown he has an impetuous streak but if he makes a mistake and the team don't tell him it was his fault, he won't learn. It's Red Bull's fault for spoiling him.”

To read more about Villeneuve's forthright views and his insight into what it's like to be involved in an F1 showdown, as he was in 1996 and '97, F1 Racing magazine can be found in most High Street newsagent stores.

  • How was this formula tested? For example if you wind it back a year or two does it accurately predict previous championship winners?

  • “The lecturer and doctor of physics at Reading University analysed patterns from the last 40 years of Grand Prix racing, taking into account race wins, pole positions, podium finishes, average finishing positions and race retirements for the top three drivers from every season.”

  • Kris Saraswat

    Is the formula based on old points system or new points system? Does it predict 2007 champ as Kimi using new points system also?

  • Ricie Foy

    How can I test This Theory?
    and what does the Z stand for?
    Can you give us the breakdown for 2010 to test in excel?